New Media Workshop

Hong Kong’s most famous and influential English-language blogger, Roland Soong, has taken an interest in our coverage of the District Council elections. He writes: “District Council election can be very interesting because one can bring in demographic data, history, personalities and local party politics.” This week he posted a series of translations of blog posts on district council elections written by “a former political insider.” You can click here to read the whole thing.

A blog post from March 12, 2007 discusses the the by-election for the district council representative in the Kam Ying Constituency of the Sha Tin District Council:

Commentators at the blog pointed out that the pro-Beijing elements have apparently adopted a strategy — in middle-class districts (such as Kam Ying), they will run professionals or local powerhouses as candidates without any apparent political affiliation (only to be revealed after winning the election); in their traditional strongholds, they will obviously raise their banners high. Tong Po Chun may be the first test case of a “submerged professional.” Have we reached an age in which party affiliation is a political liability?

On May 21 there was another by-election, this time for the Kai Yip district Kwun Tong. The result? “On this day, it would seem that both sides got all the votes out that they could. But the DAB happened to have more votes.”

On June 21 there is a discussion in this post by Derek Greyhound of why the pan-democrats have not done well against the DAB in DC by-elections after 2003. Roland asks:

With respect to the by-elections in the Hong Kong District Council, the pan-democratic camp has lost 8 of 9 by-elections. What is the excuse? Government-business collusion? Chinese Communist suppression? If these reasons actually work, then it is time to give up altogther because the other side is infinitely more resourceful!

He concludes:

…the pan-democratic camp cannot suddenly discover the importance of local work five months before the elections! And it is not about realizing the importance of something — it is about what (if anything) can be done about it!

On September 12th Derek Greyhound predicted:

AFter the its huge loss in the 2003 District Council elections, the DAB began to rebuild in 2004. They basically followed a plan which delivered effective results. In the ten by-elections since 2004, DAB has basically won every District Council by-election (with the sole exception of Tsui Wan in eastern Hong Kong Island). Furthermore, they got very good totals to the point where their opponents had to consider whether to challenge again or switch to some other district to avoid a re-match.

By comparison, the pan-democrats were imposing in 2003. But victory got to their heads. They failed to capitalize on their advantages in the individual district and spent too much time and resources on the issue of political reform while ignoring local district work. This gave some breathing room to the DAB to re-organize. In 2005, the pan-democrats acted against the will of the public with respect to the political reform package and caused their support level to drop. As a result, the DAB nibbled at many pan-democratic strongholds. Many of the pan-democrats had been elected due to the 2003 July 1st effect, and their quality left a lot of desire. By 2006, some of them have run of energy as their local district work is undistinguished and they cannot even maintain normal office operations. The discontent of the voters will be reflected in the 2007 vote, to the advantage of the DAB.

Unless the Hong Kong Island Legislative Council election is raised to the level of an epic battle and thus cause the District Council elections to become a public referendum on universal suffrage, the DAB is likely to be the biggest winners. They are fielding 200 candidates and it would not be surprising to see more than half of them get elected this time.